National governments have the power to make the greatest impact on climate change as they set the direction and ambition of the policy response. To reduce the UK’s dependency on fossil fuels, the government must design and deliver credible plans across a range of sectors.
A decarbonised energy system is critical to reducing fossil fuel dependency, but it must be managed in a way which does not exacerbate health inequality and maximises the potential health benefits – estimated as over two million years of life granted by 2050. Fuel costs in the UK are 30% higher than the EU average and the housing stock is among the least energy efficient. More than a third of UK households are at risk of fuel poverty, living in poorly insulated homes that they cannot afford to heat, with evidence suggesting cold homes cost billions a year through increased costs to the NHS, higher caring costs, lost productivity, carbon emissions – and bigger bills. Children living in the UK miss 80% more school days due to damp homes than the EU average. Ethnic minorities are more likely to be living in damp housing and be in fuel poverty. There were almost 5,000 excess winter deaths in the UK in 2023 caused by people living in cold homes.
The Climate Change Committee has advised that homes must be insulated to EPC grade C over the next decade in order to reduce carbon emissions in line with legally binding targets. The UK is not on track to meet this target; there has been a 90% reduction in loft, cavity, and wall insulation installation since 2013.
Transitioning homes off gas boilers to heat pumps is essential to decarbonise the energy system. Heat pumps, powered by low-emissions electricity, are three to five times more energy efficient than gas boilers. They also have the potential to cool as well as heat a home. However, uptake in the UK is stagnant compared to other EU countries, ranking 20 out of 21 EU nations. This is partly a consequence of the comparatively high cost of electricity relative to gas in the UK due to higher levies placed on electricity, which makes switching from gas to heat pumps difficult for households.
Renewables, excluding biomass, currently contribute about 30% of UK electricity energy supply. The UK government has set targets to generate four times more offshore wind power by 2030, and five times more solar power by 2035. However, it is currently unclear how this will be delivered and there are too many barriers in place to enable sufficient progress. Homegrown renewable energy sources such as wind, wave and solar, backed up by electricity storage and flexibility, will help decarbonise the energy system, reduce energy bills and provide security for the UK against volatile energy prices. Clean energy will also reduce the high levels of air pollution that continue to harm the health of local populations (especially the health of the most vulnerable) and reduce pressure on the NHS.
The UK Climate Change Committee has consistently warned of the absence of a strategy or plan for delivering a decarbonised, resilient electricity system by 2035. Past policy decisions to slow down investment in green technologies (e.g. solar or energy efficiency) or delivery failures may have meant opportunities to make bills cheaper have been missed. It is critical we instead grasp these opportunities and ensure effective policy implementation going forward.
Concerns about delivering the UK’s net zero agenda go beyond the energy system. The UK’s Climate Change Committee assessed that the Carbon Budget Delivery Plan (CBDP) does not contain credible plans for most of the emissions cuts needed to meet both the UK’s 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement and the Sixth Carbon Budget, set to commence in 2033. And in May 2024, following a legal challenge brought about by Client Earth, Friends of the Earth and Good Law Project, the High Court found the strategy doesn’t meet the legal obligations to the Climate Change Act 2008.
It is vital that the UK has a clear and credible plan for reducing its emissions, with a just transition that ensures that both the costs and benefits of net zero are fairly shared, with the poorest protected by well-designed policies.