Rising temperatures are shifting the geographical range of pathogens and prolonging transmission periods. Foodborne and waterborne diseases due to pathogens such as Salmonella (causes typhoid), Campylobacter (causes bloody diarrhoea), and Vibrio (causes cholera), are particularly sensitive to climatic factors, with evidence indicating an increased risk due to warming.
There is also an increased risk of vector-borne diseases in the UK due to the change in the distribution and activity of vectors such as ticks and mosquitoes. Warmer temperatures may expand the range of tick species which transmit Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis. Invasive mosquito species capable of transmitting dengue, chikungunya, Zika viruses, and West Nile virus may establish in the UK as the climate warms.
Modelling suggests that by the 2040s and 2050s, much of England could become suitable for these mosquitoes, with London potentially facing endemic dengue transmission by the 2060s under high-warming scenarios. Early detection and robust vector surveillance are crucial, as once non-native species are established, elimination is challenging. Public awareness and behaviour changes are essential to mitigate these emerging health risks.