How is the climate crisis affecting our food supplies?

Food and climate might not seem connected at first glance. However, the food system drives one-third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is the main cause of biodiversity loss globally.1 Climate change is hitting crops hard. Heatwaves, droughts, and floods are all disrupting agriculture. Recent reports link rising global temperatures to food inflation due to higher production costs, damaged crops, and lower yields.2 This is a big concern for me.

I come from Odisha, a state on the eastern coast of India, where rice is the staple food. But in July 2023, India’s delayed and heavy monsoons damaged crops leading to a surge in rice prices, prompting export bans. These bans were only lifted recently in September 2024. Climate change is impacting rice farmers all around the world with challenges like drought, flooding, and rising water salinity. Italy, which produces half of the EU’s rice and is the sole global grower of risotto rice varieties, reported declining yields in 2023 due to consecutive drought years.3 In the US, California’s rice belt was hit by a severe drought in 2022, reducing planting by half and causing $703 million in economic losses and 5,300 job cuts.3

The day-to-day impact of the climate crisis on food production is noticeable in home cooking. I am a fan of a simple gnocchi recipe, which requires three key ingredients: olive oil, potatoes, and wheat flour. However, in recent years, olive oil prices have risen to near unaffordability—nearly £16 a litre. The price rise is caused by an imbalance between supply and demand. Since 2021, prolonged heat and drought across the Mediterranean have driven global olive oil production down by about a third from 2021 to 2024.2 In Spain, extreme drought and temperatures up to 4°C above average have dried out olive groves, leaving Andalusia’s water reservoirs at just 25% capacity, leading to severe crop losses in the world’s top olive oil-producing country.3 This has caused olive oil prices to spike, rising 70% in Portugal and 50% across the EU by January 2024.2 The surge in price has made olive oil the “most stolen product” in Spanish supermarkets and driven a sharp decline in sales across the Mediterranean due to unaffordability. Although production slightly improved last year, it remains well below the five-year average, highlighting the sector’s vulnerability to climate extremes.

Potato harvests also have not been spared. In Europe, heavy autumn rains in 2023 soaked potato fields in Belgium, France, and the UK, delaying harvests and increasing spoilage. The rains also threatened Europe’s sugar beet crop and delayed winter grain planting in France, impacting regional food security. Meanwhile, extreme heat and drought in West Africa doubled cocoa prices since 2023, and climate-driven pest and disease outbreaks have affected crops like oranges in Florida and Brazil, pushing prices higher.

Geopolitical tensions and rising production costs compound climate impacts. For example, the Ukraine conflict has disrupted global wheat and fertiliser supplies, raising food prices and straining low-income regions. Wheat, the third ingredient of my gnocchi dish, remains highly vulnerable to climate shocks.

The outlook is concerning. Projected temperature rises in Europe by 2035 could raise food inflation by 30-50%.4 Food insecurity not only impacts the economy, but also health, with the IPCC warning of rising hunger.5 In 2022, every 1 in 8 people in the world was living with obesity. Limited access to affordable, nutritious food can lead to malnutrition, weaken immune systems, and increase susceptibility to disease. Rising prices often force people to substitute fresh, nutrient-rich foods with cheaper, processed alternatives, leading to a rise in diet-related diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular issues, and cancer. Food scarcity also elevates stress and mental health challenges, especially in vulnerable communities. The combined impact of food insecurity and health risks creates a worsening feedback loop as climate change intensifies.

These challenges highlight the need for adaptive strategies. To ensure food security, experts recommend investing in climate-resilient agriculture; like crop diversification, soil regeneration, and drought-resistant crops. Simultaneously, reducing food system emissions is essential to limit further climate change.

Red meat and dairy contribute 57% of food-related global GHG emissions.6 Reducing agricultural emissions, particularly short-lived methane and nitrous oxide from ruminant livestock, offers a crucial opportunity to mitigate climate change. Methane, largely from cattle, sheep, and goats, drives 30% of global warming, with agriculture accounting for 42% of human-made methane emissions.6

Shifting to a plant-based food system could substantially cut emissions, as plant proteins produce 70 times fewer greenhouse gases and use 150 times less land than beef. Reducing animal farming could free 75% of farmland for rewilding, potentially offsetting up to 16 years of fossil fuel emissions. Lowering food system emissions is essential to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target. Tackling food insecurity requires holistic policies, as outlined in a new policy report by the UK Health Alliance on Climate Change, that combine immediate food aid with sustainable farming and a shift to low-carbon, plant-based diets, enhancing both human health and environmental resilience.6

References

1. Biodiversity, climate change and health A policy report from the UK Health Alliance on Climate Change. September 2023. https://s41874.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/Biodiversity-Report-v6d.pdf
2. Carbon Brief. Five charts: How climate change is driving up food prices around the world. https://www.carbonbrief.org/five-charts-how-climate-change-is-driving-up-food-prices-around-the-world/?utm_source=cbnewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2024-08-28&utm_campaign=Daily+Briefing+27+08+2024
3. World Economic Forum. Extreme weather is driving food prices higher. These 5 crops are facing the biggest impacts. February 2024. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/02/climate-change-food-prices-drought/
4. Kotz M, Kuik F, Lis E, et al. Global warming and heat extremes to enhance inflationary pressures. Commun Earth Environ2024;5:116. doi:10.1038/s43247-023-01173-x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
5. IPCC report. Food, fibre and other ecosystem products. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter05.pdf
6. Plant-powered Planet. Building a healthy & sustainable food system. A policy report on food systems, climate change and health by the UK Health Alliance on Climate Change. https://ukhealthalliance.org/influencing-policy/plant-powered-planet-building-a-healthy-sustainable-food-system/

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This article was originally published in the BMJ: https://www.bmj.com/content/387/bmj.q2809