Taking stock: UKHACC’s newly appointed Co-Chairs, Hugh Montgomery and Sandy Mather, reflect and look forward

The Passive View

Looking back

One hundred and seventy years ago, global anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions were only 196.75 million tonnes when, in 1856, Eunice Foote first described its ‘Greenhouse gas’ [GHG] effect: it allowed passage of shortwave solar radiation, but trapped (longwave) heat energy.  Since then, we have ignored repeated warnings about that harm which unbridled CO₂ release from fossil fuel combustion will do, including those in the six reports since 1990 from the world’s scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The 30 intergovernmental ‘Conference of the Parties’ (COP) negotiations since 1995 have made no impact. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol committed industrialized countries to an average 5.2% fall from 1990 GHG emissions by 2012. Instead, they have risen by 185%, from 20 billion to 57 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (3 x 10²⁵ litres) in 2024 alone¹. Atmospheric concentrations are now rising by 2.6ppm/year, and faster every year, to a concentration of >427ppm (from a preindustrial baseline of 280ppm), now trapping the energy equivalent of 11 Hiroshima Bomb’s/second.

Looking Around

The oceans are gaining heat – in 2024, a (record) 16×10²¹ Joules was added to its top 2km – enough to take 15 billion Olympic swimming pools from 0^oC to 100^oC². The gaseous atmosphere is heating – to 1.6^oC above preindustrial levels in 2024 –  and ever faster each year³. Ice melt was 28 trillion tonnes between 1994 and 2017- the same weight as taking every single motor vehicle on 14 Earths. That rate has itself accelerated by 57 % (from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes/year) since the 1990s⁴.  Sea level rise (from land ice melt and thermal ocean expansion) has now accelerated to nearly 1cm every 2 years, its rate doubling in recent decades⁵.  Extreme weather events (storms, heatwaves, droughts,  floods, fires) affect everyone in the world, and are increasingly frequent and severe: up 83% between 1980-1999 and 2000-2019 ⁷. Heatwave exposure is rising.⁸ The land area affected by extreme drought annually has risen from 18% to 47% in only 50 years (reviewed in⁷).  

Looking Forwards

We must remember that what we see now isn’t ‘the new normal’: we stand in the foothills of catastrophe. Even ceasing all emissions today would see global temperatures continue to rise, such is the latency in thermal equilibrium. But, far worse from that, we now face an ‘acceleration of accelerations’ in heating and its impacts as interacting positive feedback loops take hold. Snow and ice melt means less to reflect light back into space (albedo effect), and more exposed dark soil/ ocean to absorb heat. This adds an energy gain equivalent of an extra 100ppm atmospheric CO₂. Emissions of methane (83x as potent a GHG as CO₂ over its first 20 years) from (rebranded) ‘Natural Gas’, belching cows, rubbish tips and more, is now supplemented by release from melting permafrost, heated carbonate rocks and wetland fermentation, and its atmospheric clearance reduced by fires (tree bark microbiomes break it down; carbon monoxide from forest fires extends its atmospheric half-life).  Wildfires release (GHG) CO₂, and (atmospheric heating/ glacier melting) black soot. Water vapour from ocean evaporation is a high-altitude GHG, and tundra/rainforest heating is leading to both becoming net CO₂ emitters⁶. Finally, the full force of global heating is being revealed as loss of (reflective) low-altitude cloud occurs. Indeed, the rate of earth’s energy gain may have quadrupled in only the last 4 years ⁷.

Abrupt and catastrophic changes are occurring to global weather systems. Polar heating (<4x  faster than the global average) is accelerating and moving the Northern Jet Stream, worsening Iberian droughts and Northern European flooding, and bringing even more extreme weather events. Collapse or severe slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC, transporting massive heat loads around the N hemisphere) is imminent. Massive sudden Arctic heating may soon accelerate these impacts and those on sea level (reviewed in⁷. ) 

What does this mean for us- all of us, everywhere, alive today? Bluntly, our very survival is threatened through socioeconomic collapse and conflict. The IPCC warn that, without immediate intervention, we will miss ‘a rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future’⁹. Nearly 1/5^th of the land area occupied by humans will soon face temperatures incompatible with survival.  The food industry warning that, ‘predictability of [food] supply …is not something we will be able to rely upon over the coming years’¹⁰.  Economic collapse will accelerate that of society. Insurance actuaries warn that we may soon face the loss of 50% of Global Domestic Product¹¹ and that ‘’our economy may not exist at all” without immediate action¹². Starvation, disease and economic collapse bring migration “of entire populations on a biblical scale”, and war¹³. Even the banks are now accepting business as usual to deliver 3^oC of heating by 2050¹⁴ which, actuaries warn, may bring “4 billion deaths, significant sociopolitical fragmentation worldwide, failure of states …and extinction events.”¹¹ Others agree: collapse of the ecosystems upon which human survival depends will culminate in ‘a mass extinction rivalling those in Earth’s past”¹⁵.  We are thus, ‘on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster’ with ‘much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled.’¹⁶. 

The Active View

Looking Back

By any account, those around us – individuals, corporates, governments – have failed to have impact. But we cannot just blame others. We must commend the leadership who have passed us the baton. They have worked tirelessly to deliver change. But some have failed to respond adequately.  Many UKHACC members have declared a ‘Climate Emergency’. But not all have actually responded as if it is one. And our voice is not being adequately listened to. 

Looking Forward

We must now accelerate real action, recognising and responding to this life-threatening emergency, and doing what is both necessary and sufficient to be effective.  

This means that every one of us must take personal action, and be seen to do so. No ‘moral offset’ from our jobs can be applied. 

We must move our bank accounts and investments away from those which support fossil fuel use and to those which do not (e.g. Nationwide Building Society, Cooperative Bank, Triodos). 

We must move our power supplies to 100% renewable sources (e.g. Octopus Energy, Good Energy). 

For those who can afford to, we must electrify our domestic and transport use. We must use low-carbon transport (cycle/walk> mass transport >>> flying) and change our diets to (local, seasonal) vegan, vegetarian or plant-based ones (meat in smaller portions less often, avoiding beef/lamb) given that 38% of emissions come from the food supply chain. 

We must act professionally, working with our employers and the societies/organisations we represent to deliver these very same actions. Who do they bank or invest with? Who is their power supplier? What is their staff travel policy?  What have they done to change conferencing to ‘green’ venues and low-carbon catering, and to limit flying by delegates or speakers? To what extent, and how, are they communicating with and driving change by their members? By the patients they may represent or engage with?

We must act politically, making the case for action, supporting the most ambitious of parties and policymakers, and calling out those who lag or obstruct.

We must propagate our action. We must engage family, friends and colleagues to do the same. We must engage with other representative organisations abroad to deliver real action, and fast.

We must proclaim, advocating for public health interventions. Polluted air (power production, gas stoves/boilers, road transport);  meat, dairy and and processed food-based diets; and motorized (not active) transport drive both emissions and a vast burden of non-communicable disease. Active transport and plant-based diets are positively beneficial. Such shifts also reduce the emissions which derive from downstream healthcare.

A Call to Arms

If we and the organisations we represent have declared a climate emergency yet failed to take even these most basic actions, then accusations of hypocrisy might rightly be made.

Inaction doesn’t just threaten health, lives, healthcare systems or the economy which allows us to do our jobs. It threatens our own survival and that of life on earth. Beyond all others, we healthcare professionals are clever enough to diagnose a problem, moral enough to recognise the imperative to act, and experienced enough to understand what emergency action looks like. Now is the time to take such action- for the sake of our patients, or our children, and ourselves.  If not us, then who? If not now, then when?

To this end, we (Sandy and Hugh) want to hear from you. Is the organization you represent truly proactive and committed? If so, why- and what lessons can you share? How can we all support and amplify your impact? And if your organization is not taking the required action, why is that, and how can we help?

We want your original ideas to formulate and enact an effective and impactful theory of change. Let us know.

We want to empower you. If you have an idea for action, tell us- and tell us what resources you require.

From the ashes of a burning world, we rise.

We very much look forward to working with each and every one of you.  Thank you for the opportunity.

Hugh and Sandy

References

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